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Data suggest nCoV more infectious than 1918 flu, but what does that mean? – CIDRAP

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Research published late yesterday in The New England Journal of Medicine offers another estimate of the R-nought (R0) value—a measure of infectiousness—of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that has sickened more than 8,000 people and suggests the virus is more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus.

The study was based on the first 425 cases of 2019 nCoV from Wuhan, China, in December and this month. It also determined a mean incubation period (time from exposure to first symptoms) of 5.2 days.

In addition, a smaller study yesterday in The Lancet found a case-fatality rate (CFR, or the percent of deaths among those infected) of 11% in the first 99 patients at a hospital in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

Each patient could infect 2+ more

Based on calculations, the authors of the larger study estimate the novel coronavirus has an R0 of 2.2, meaning each case patient could infect more than 2 other people. If accurate, this makes the 2019 nCoV more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus, which had an R0 of 1.80 (interquartile range: 1.47 to 2.27).

This is the largest epidemiological study to date to suggest clear evidence of human-to-human transmission…



Read More: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean

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Source: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean

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